tejusbharadwaj / aircraft-risk-assessment-system

Bayesian Network Project

Aircraft-Risk-Assessment-System

Civil aviation is an industry with features of high-tech, high-risk and intensive capital. Safety is an essential basis for airline survival and development. Risk assessment is one of the most significant parts of the management of airline. The effect of the assignment influences the profit of the company directly. Factors which affect the airline safety are complex and variable. It is necessary to explore a scientific and objective method to assessment the risk of airline. Airline risk assessment system is an interrelated index system. The risk assessment index system is established by collecting the reliability data, maintainability data, management data and safety data from airlines. The weight of index is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process and the qualitative index are quantified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The airline risk assessment model is based on the Bayesian network.

Practical implications:

Implications of risk assessment for airline may result in enhancing airline safety management level and reducing operating costs. Further implications could possibly be extended to various of civil aviation operations. Social implications: The risk assessment method can be applied to other complicated systems.

Explanation of Bayesian Network

This particular Bayesian network has three levels. In the first level, there is Aircraft risk, which tells at how much of risk is the aircraft at that particular time. It is determined by four factor which are at the level 2.  These are Technology fault, Maintenance, Environmental effect and Safety. 

1. Technology Fault –

• Can be low or high

• If this is low, then the risk of the aircraft is lower and if this is higher, the aircraft is at a higher risk

• It is determined by the following factors –

 How often the defect is repeated

 If the technological reports and the defects report is normal or not

 How good the fault log is maintained?

 The Service Difficulty Reports

2. Maintenance-

• The risk of an aircraft being at danger can be determined by analyzing how well it has been maintained.

• The maintenance of the aircraft can be determined by the following 4 factors –

 The symptoms when the accident occurred

 The Rate of General maintenance mistakes made

 The frequency of serious mistakes made

 How good is the maintenance log is maintained which can be used for further references?

3. The Safety –

• The safety of the aircraft has a major impact on the risk analysis of the aircraft

• This is determined by the following 3 factors –

 If safety education is given to the crew members as well as the passengers

 How well is the safety mechanism installed on the aircraft

 If the pilot is reliable or not

4. The Environmental Effects –

• The environments effects is one other factor to determine the aircraft risk of being at danger

• The environmental effects not only covers the weather effects but also various other factors like the ones mentioned below –

 The Weather effects (of course)

 The operating time- how much is the aircraft is being used – mainly determined by good or bad here meaning if it is being used within the given technical stress and timeframe

 Material management – meaning how the materials on the plane are put to use such that the weight is not unevenly distributed or to check if the overall weight and the buoyance of the plane is ideal for long term flying

 The working site – determining the conditions at which the aircraft works, both on the ground as well as in the air.

Here is a screen shot of the Bayesian Network for the analyzing the risk factor for an aircraft :

Here are a few examples of the CPT used in the above Bayesian Network –

Table 1: CPT for Aircraft Risk Assessment

Table 2: CPT for Aircraft Maintenance