covid-19_italy_analysis's Introduction

Italy COVID-19 data analysis

Introduction

The goal is to get some insights about the spreading of the COVID-19 in Italy

Software and Libraries

To gather, model and visualize data I have used Microsoft Power BI while for the prediction part I have used Microsoft Excel

Data

Since the end of February 2020 Italian Civil Protection Department is publishing in this Github repository the data about the situation of COVID-19 spreading in Italy. The data are updated every day at 6 PM CET

I have also used data from Humanitarian Data Exchange to compare the italian situation with other countries

Both sources are in CSV format hosted online

Running the code

covid-19_italy_analysis.xlsx can be used to check the predictions done while covid-19_italy_analysis.pbix can be used to check the Microsoft Power BI report

Results

We started considering the Logistic function as model for the spreading of a virus

Italy overview

All visualization for Italy in the report are enabled to drill up/down on the location dimension

To estimate how close we are to the inflection point of a logistic curve we have looked to the Growth Factor

From there using Excel we have build a model

Deceased prediction is marked in orange while the current data are in blue

Results are better explained in this blog post

Licensing and Acknowledgements

Thank you Protezione Civile for the datasets and for the outstanding work you are doing with Servizio Sanitario Nazionale to save as many lives as possible. Also thank you to Humanitarian Data Exchange for the world data. More information about the licensing of the data can be found on their web sites

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