UK PV Forecast Blend
This app is for blending forecast together
The main application (forecast_blend/app.py)
- Loads different forecasts
- Blends them together using weights
- Saves them ready to be used by the api
- This is done for all GSPs
This was previously done in the API
We always update the ForecastValueLatest table, but we only update the ForecastValue table every 30 minutes
Details
- Note we only blend forecasts if they are made within 2 hours. If all forecasts are older than this, then all forecasts are used.
- The probabilistic forecasts are now blended using the same method as the expected value
graph TD;
subgraph App
S(Start) --> LF
LF(Load All Forecasts);
LF --> Filter(Filter Forecasts);
Filter --> Blend[Blend \n Expected values];
Blend --> N4(Blend Probabilistic \n- only for National);
N4 --> S(Save Forecast)
S --> F(Finish)
end
subgraph Blending
A(All Forecasts);
W2(Weights);
A --> SUT(Split unique 'target times' \n and not);
SUT --> |Unique Target times| B
SUT --> |Duplicated Target times| C(Loop over each \n target time)
C --> BW
W2 --> BW
BW(Blend using weights) --> SumCheck
SumCheck{At least one \n forecast available} --> |yes| B
SumCheck --> |no| Blend2(Blend forecast with \n next set of weights)
Blend2 --> SumCheck2
SumCheck2{At least one \n forecast available} --> |yes| B
SumCheck2 --> |no| BB(Break)
B(Blended \n Forecast)
end
Tests
Tests are in the tests folder and can be run using pytest
Might need to
export PYTHONPATH=${PYTHONPATH}:./forecast_blend