marei-epmg / times-ireland-model Goto Github PK

The current residential results allow for biofuels, but there is an issue with solar not coming through. It might be due to new timeslices?
The residential thermal retrofits are now down as the biofuels are preferred in the residential sector over thermal retrofit plus electrical heat pump.

CAPACITY, SELFS, other projects that developments are planned under

Possibility to introduce peaking equation in TIMES to model peak reserve requirement in power sector (grid code)

The current model version includes modification by @jayomacg in RSD which include dissaggregation of building stock by BER. @ankitagaur93 could you check how the INS table on the Residential sheet should be modified?

EirGrid imposed maximum amount of variable renewable generation on the grid at a given time:

• 2018: 65% - https://www.eirgridgroup.com/newsroom/record-renewable-energy-o/index.xml
• 2021: 70% - https://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-the-grid-works/ds3-programme/
• 2022: 75% - https://www.eirgridgroup.com/newsroom/electricity-grid-to-run-o/index.xml

Hi @ankitagaur93, @vahid-aryanpur ,
Could you please check and update the LED scenario to include all demand commodities? Below is a list of commodities that need to be updated/included:

RSDCD
RSDCK
RSDCW
RSDOA
RSDOE
RSDRF
TRAF
TRAPL

Thanks,
Bakytzhan

Many thanks

Need mitigation option for LPG in industry.

Also it is unlikely to increase substantially in Services between 2023-2025 so quickly then disappear entirely.

• In display change DMD_TRA-P-CAR-FCV to FCV
• Limit total new car/HGV/MGV/LGV sales to 50% higher than any previous year. Check there's no unmet demand as a result.
• Display vehicle activity by technology, or remove early retired vehicles
• Freight - deactivate new LNG trucks. Look at new freight sales and check what share is bio-CNG (in ICE and hybrid). May need to add growth constraints to factor in fuelling potential.
• Look into why FCVs are being added
• Check why transport demand jumps in 2024 - potential to reduce this
• What constraint is limiting EV sales from reaching 100%? I suggest allowing by 2025.

The efficiency of power plants with CCS should be lower than those without

Vehicle stock for the following categories should be updated:

• Private cars
• Heavy trucks
• Medium trucks
• Light trucks

• Constrain 2023 and 2024 new capacity
• Contact SEAI to request new grid-scale solar and onshore wind energy capacity additions in 2024 (and 2025 if necessary)
• Check wind onshore from: https://windeurope.org/newsroom/news/ireland-makes-history-with-its-first-offshore-wind-auction/
• Change BECCS start date to 2030
• Electricity gets to net zero by 2030
• Look into differences with previous study - likely will need natural gas to 2035

separate industry process emissions in the results graphics

Is this plausible?

Sectoral emissions ceilings have been published: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/76864-sectoral-emissions-ceilings/
Should we swap the EAM scenario for a scenario based on the ceilings, @daly-h @energynumbers ?

• Kinsale field was closed in 2020

We previously had data centres reducing demand in LED - check with Ankita

Incorrect use of the cap2act parameter in residential sector technologies, especially for technologies with two inputs.

Freight demand may be over-estimated

Use SEAI value of zero rather than IPCC inventory

• Check natural gas consumption from 2025-2030 - where is it coming from?
• Change carbon budget constraint for CB1 and CB2 to the entire period.

EU RED II, energy efficiency directive
Coal and peat through in residential sector

Attached buildings require 20 times less energy for heating than detached ones

Currently no solver settings/options are present. Should we add some?

Bioenergy supply is not credible in several ways. Immediate increase of ethanol in 2023 from grass is not plausible - I suggest removing the technology entirely. Similar issue with biodiesel from woody biomass. I suggest removing these technologies and just fixing domestically-produced biodiesel, ethanol and biogas supply from the findings of the SEAI heat study: https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/national-heat-study/sustainable-bioenergy-for/

• No DH going to apartments
• New dwellings by type - blip - ask Ankita
• Legends in new heating types need to be made much simpler

Veda2.0 v1.251 shows the following info messages (records deleted) after synchronisation:

• zero value for input/output in BASE for S-SH-PU_ELC-HP_X0, R-BLD_Apt, R-BLD_Att and R-BLD_Det
• commodity is invalid (input table Building stock B24 in VT_IE_SRV.xlsx and multiple commodities in counties, e.g. ELCD)

I just happened to look at the model (Release 1.0.2), due to a post on the VEDA Forum, related to heat pumps modeling.

It seems to me that there may be a few mistakes related to the modeling of RSD multi-output tehnologies, in particular heat pumps.

• The efficiencies appear to be usually defined both for the RSDELC input and some of the ouput flows (example: R-HC_Apt_ELC_HPN2-AB). This means that the total efficiency of producing such an output will be the two efficiencies multiplied together, resulting in some cases in very high efficiencies. That makes me suspect that such may be a modeling mistake.
• The ambient heat input flow is defined by FLO_SHAR, where the reference CG is one of the ouput commodities. However, in some cases two or even several such FLO_SHAR are defined, which would generate a constraint for each of those shares (example: R-HC_Apt_ELC_HPN2-AB, with two such FLO_SHAR). That looks like a mistake again. I would suggest using FLO_EFF(r,y,p,NRGO,RSDAHT,ANNUAL) = 1 and FLO_EFF(r,y,p,RSDELC,RSDAHT,ANNUAL) = -1 to get RSDAHT correctly defined.
• The availablility factors of the multi-output tehnologies seem to be mostly defined by using NCAP_AFC (which is fine as such). However, in some cases both NCAP_AFC(ANNUAL) and NCAP_AFA are defined (example: R-HC_Apt_ELC_HPN2-AB). Please bear in mind that if both AFC and activity-based AFs are defined for the same timeslice, they are multiplied together (unless independent AFCs are used). It seems that both factors may have been used by mistake in the model, for example in the case of R-HC_Apt_ELC_HPN2-AB, where the AFC and AFA values are equal.

My apologies if these suspicions are just my misunderstandings. Feel free to close the issue immediately if it has no relevance (@olejandro @jayomacg).

The share of ambient heat flow for heat pumps is slightly low, need to investigate. Ambient heat uses a auxiliary input

@vahid-aryanpur seems that the last adjustment in load factor for HGVs makes the model infeasible in 2018. I'll roll back those numbers for now.