Predicting results in Chess.com Fantasty Pro Chess League
- Model for converting Elo ratings (difference) to win/draw/loss probabilities ported from Elo Win Probability Calculator.
- Some parameter fitting was done after Week 6 under the hypothesis that fewer games are drawn in the rapid format (15|2 or 10|2) than for standard games.
| Event | Date | Score | Rank w/o tiebreaker (sparse) | Rank w/o tiebreaker (dense) | Tiebreaker score | Rank w tiebreaker (sparse) | Rank w tiebreaker (dense) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Saturday & Sunday | 2014-02-03, 04 | 82 | 65 | 12 | 0 (10) | 90 | 17 |
| Week 5 | 2018-02-07 | 37 | 104 | 14 | N/A | ||
| Week 6 | 2018-02-14 | 42.5 | 10 | 6 | N/A | ||
| Super Saturday #2 | 2018-02-24 | 90.5 | 21 | 9 | 0 (10) | 41 | 16 |
| Week 8 | 2018-02-28 | 43.5 | 11 | 5 | N/A |
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