afg6k7h4fhy2 / forecasting-tornadoes

This repository contains up to several models aimed at forecasting US tornado counts by state, season, and month.

Forecasting-Tornadoes

This repository covers up to several models for forecasting tornadoes. The authors of these models are not experts in climate modelling or tornado dynamics.

Forecasting repositories, such as this one (usually created by @AFg6K7h4fhy2), are typically positioned as small experimental test units for tackling Metaculus questions with statistical modelling.

If you are a collaborator, make sure, upon cloning this repository

• git clone https://github.com/AFg6K7h4fhy2/Forecasting-Tornadoes.git

that you have poetry installed.

• pip3 install poetry

Once this is done, type poetry shell. To close the environment, type exit.

Repository Structure

tree | grep -Ev "\.png|\.pyc|\.txt|\.csv"

.
├── CONTRIBUTING.md
├── LICENSE
├── README.md
├── _typos.toml
├── assets
│   └── figures
├── data
│   ├── clean
│   └── raw
├── model_E414_01
│   ├── __init__.py
│   ├── docs
│   │   ├── Makefile
│   │   ├── output
│   │   │   └── out.pdf
│   │   └── source
│   │       ├── metadata.yml
│   │       ├── model.md
│   │       └── references.bib
│   ├── output
│   │   ├── April_2024
│   │   └── May_2024
│   ├── params.toml
│   └── src
│       ├── __init__.py
│       ├── __pycache__
│       ├── model.py
│       └── run.py
├── poetry.lock
├── pyproject.toml
└── utils
    ├── __init__.py
    ├── __pycache__
    ├── config.py
    ├── data.py
    ├── inf.py
    ├── save.py
    ├── transform.py
    └── vis.py

17 directories, 92 files

forecasting-tornadoes's Issues

Post Introductory Metaculus Comment on Question 22307

Goal

Write a Metaculus comment on question 22307 discussing the results of Model A (the first model).

Context

As of 2024-04-28, there are roughly 2 days remaining for predictors to make comments on question 22307. That there were many tornadoes recently across the US has pushed predictions close to the open upper bound on the question. Despite this, the author suspects predictors are likely still interested in learning about possible modelling techniques that can be employed here.

Tasks

• Get stable output and code for Model A, including different combinations of the terms.
• Draft a comment here to post on Metaculus.

Out Of Scope

• Evaluating other sorts of models that can be used for tornado prediction.
• Discussing the nature and dynamics of tornadoes.

Resources & Links

• Tornado Count In April-May 2024

Code Review Of Model E414 01 On StackExchange

Goal

Receive external feedback on the process of loading data from toml file in Python, generally and as is represented in the code at present.

Context

There are likely best practices with respect to loading from toml, yaml, and json files; the coding community likely has a better sense of this than I do.

Tasks

• Post a question on Code Review.
• General a template for questions on Code Review.

Out Of Scope

• A discussion on configuration files in general.

Resources & Links

• Relevant file for code review
• Code Review

Meta Considerations For Issues And Discussions

Goal

Add checklist of issues & discussions that should be created to facilitate tornado forecasting and the use of best practices in software development, statistics, and forecasting.

Context

See Goal.

Tasks

• Mathematical Approaches For Forecasting Tornados (discussion)
• Existing Work On Tornado Forecasting (discussion)
• Best Practices In Repository's Software And Model Design (issue and discussion)
• Model Diagrams Creation (issue)
• Data Visualization Checklist (issue and discussion)
• Samples Saving Scheme (issue and discussion)
• Forecast Saving Scheme (issue and discussion)
• Config Default Values (issue)
• Model Naming And Lead Models (discussion)
• Sensitivity Analysis (issue)
• Model Documentation (issue)
• Converting Forecasts To Metaculus Predictions (issue)
• README Considerations (issue)

Out Of Scope

TBD.

Resources & Links

TBD.