This project contains a small simulator for epidemic outbreaks and progress.
You first need to install python3. Then install numpy using "pip install numpy". Then do a git clone of the repository.
The simulation is highly configurable. To understand you first need to take a look at the state diagram which is available as a Open Office Doc in the repo.
The configuration of the simulation is done directly in the code so far and provided as an bunch of arrays as parameters of the constructor for the simulator class.
The parameters are described in the code.
the parameters can be an array with just one field, if you would like to do the simulation for the whole population with the same params.
If you specify multiple values in each array, these values represent the parameter for one segment of the population, e.g. all elderly people or all people which have a different risk of dieing.
The examples included have parameters defined for a simulation of switzerland and the simulation for the wuhan out break of covid 19 with 2 groups of people defined, the index 0 is for people with high risk of dieing, the index 1, for poeple with low risk of dieing.
The simulation done with the simulation starting date 23/03/2020 and the paramters defined on 27/03/2020 seem to reproduce the accurate number of deaths and cases up to 01/04/2020 for Switzerland (Schweiz).
This simulation done for switzerland with starting date 26/07/2020. The most recent values of the federal office of public health (https://www.bag.admin.ch/) and some additional data of studies of https://www.corona-immunitas.ch/ were used to create the model.
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