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rneher avatar rneher commented on September 23, 2024 2

thanks for the reference. we'll try to make these numbers available through the app asap

from covid19_scenarios.

rneher avatar rneher commented on September 23, 2024 1

We have added fields now. Thanks for the pointers. We'll clean up the input data and hopefully have a table that can be readily extended. Making the fatality rate a function of load is on the list!

from covid19_scenarios.

pinanunes avatar pinanunes commented on September 23, 2024

Great work,

I would second this request (actually the big question now). Adding total beds or beds per 100.000 and add a transition rate between C and D with ICU and C and D' for critical cases above number of available beds.
For default values per country this sources can be used:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8
https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_479-5061-number-of-acute-care-hospital-beds/
(Europe only)

Thank you! Great work

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aeon-lakes avatar aeon-lakes commented on September 23, 2024

'ICM/ICU beds' overstates capacity. There are generally less ventilated beds than physical beds in an Intensive Care Unit. Given the numbers of critically ill with SARS/ARDS COVID-19 produces and their subsequent long ICU stay, the important number is really ventilated beds rather than ICM/ICU beds. Once ventilator capacity is occupied, it is the critically ill in excess of that number (that need ventilation but can't be accommodated) who will become inevitable mortalities.

2010 numbers for Australia and New Zealand are here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0310057X1003800124

Given the overstatement of ICM/ICU capacity provided by official numbers in this context, the ability to directly enter known ventilated bed capacity for the simulated area, rather than pull down from an ICU/ICM number list is more helpful. Perhaps even more so if it could be changed to reflect increasing capacity during the selected term of the simulation (that's only a 'nice to have' though).

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pinanunes avatar pinanunes commented on September 23, 2024

I must agree with @aeon-lakes. Maybe is better to have it as a value or even as a time-dependent value as used on mitigation.

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aeon-lakes avatar aeon-lakes commented on September 23, 2024

This paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Suggests 2.3% of treated COVID-19 patients or around half of ICU patients were invasively ventilated. It doesn't state whether ventilation was indicated for more, but that's a ballpark figure to calculate ventilator demand? Cases above that calculated number would become deaths.

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