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aprotopopov avatar aprotopopov commented on June 12, 2024

I think for BetaGeoFitter it's a right equation according to Computing P(alive) Using the BG/NBD Model.
However for MBG/NBD may be not as I understand from original paper Empirical validation and comparison of models for customer base analysis.
Equation for probability alive/active is in Appendix A, number (5).

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CamDavidsonPilon avatar CamDavidsonPilon commented on June 12, 2024

Hm, it looks different, but the gamma ratios will simplify to the correct values - am I missing something?

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aprotopopov avatar aprotopopov commented on June 12, 2024

Yes, you're right. Probably just need to delete http://www.brucehardie.com/notes/021/palive_for_BGNBD.pdf from description for conditional_probability_alive for MBG/NBD to exclude any misreading.

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