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archiewood avatar archiewood commented on May 16, 2024 1

Missed that, apologies - do close /merge this

[I think if you are using a base 10 log rather than natural ln, then a y=x line would be a doubling time of 1 unit of time (as defined by your y axis rate of change denominator). Ie 1 week:

From the SI compartmental model, which should be a good approximation in early stages:

dI/dt = beta*S*I/N, [beta = 1/doubling time]

log (dI/dt) = log(I) +log(beta*S/N)

in limit I << N (many less infected than total population), S/N --> 1

log(dI/dt) =log(I) + log(beta)

which is your plot, with intercept of log(beta)

for log(beta)=0, beta =1,
ie doubling time of 1 time unit.]

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aatishb avatar aatishb commented on May 16, 2024

Hi, this is related to #82, which is a priority. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a y=x line would correspond to a doubling time of e days. It may be clearer to illustrate trend lines for different integer doubling times (e.g. 2 days, 5 days, 10 days).

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aatishb avatar aatishb commented on May 16, 2024

Thanks for the clarification, this is helpful!

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aatishb avatar aatishb commented on May 16, 2024

@all-contributors add @archiewood for ideas

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allcontributors avatar allcontributors commented on May 16, 2024

@aatishb

I've put up a pull request to add @archiewood! 🎉

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